News
Russian soft power in Gali?
12.04.2021
Civil servants of Abkhazia received salaries in late March that had been delayed for three months. According to the Democracy Research Institute, the above was followed by a letter from the illegal embassy of the Russian Federation in Abkhazia, in which a pledge of support and care was made to the Georgian population of Gali on behalf of the Russian Government. According to the letter, the Russian Federation undertook to cover 93% of the salary arrears of the public institutions of Abkhazia. The news represents a reminder that Russians are "friends". According to the pathos of the letter, it is time for Georgians to realize that peace and prosperity is possible in the region only with the help of Russia.
 
Against the background when the Abkhazian de facto authorities only impose restrictions on the Georgian population of Gali, it is obvious that Russia is activating its soft power to win over the Georgian residents of Gali with financial and economic support and some kind of patronage.
 
It is not known to the Democracy Research Institute whether the letter was sent only to Georgians living in Gali or public officials of other districts or cities of Abkhazia received letters of similar content. However, it can be assumed that Russia, which sees the distrust of ethnic Georgians towards Abkhazians and their "authorities" as a precondition for growing their support for Russia, is pursuing a policy behind the de facto authorities of Abkhazia. Given the extremely limited access of the Georgian Government to the Georgian population of Gali and the further isolation of the district in the wake of the Covid-pandemic, the Russian message "You may be abandoned by everyone, but Russia will never abandon you" could be a serious challenge for both Georgian and Abkhazian sides. The above policy is aimed at increasing pro-Russian sentiments among the Georgian population remaining in Abkhazia, which could lead to the deepening and strengthening of the annexation of Abkhazia by Russia.
 
According to the official data, 46,813 out of Abkhazia's 246,936[1] residents are ethnically Georgians, which, together with 22,341 strongly pro-Russian ethnic Russians and 41,845 Armenians (64,186 in total), may balance the political sentiments of 124,785 ethnic Abkhazians[2], according to the alleged Russian occupation arithmetic.
 
The ethnic identity plays the role of a watershed between the supporters for Abkhazia's independence and Abkhazia's unification with the Russian Federation, as confirmed by a survey conducted in Abkhazia by American and Russian researchers back in 2011.[3] Unfortunately, none of the survey results have been made publicly available since then. Consequently, it is difficult to say whether these attitudes changed according to ethnicity. However, we can assume that these trends are still valid today, which the Russian Federation is actively using to increase its influence on the territory of Abkhazia and to seize the reins of control behind the de facto authorities’ back.
 
The current situation and trend should be worrying primarily for the de facto authorities of Abkhazia, which continues to restrict the cultural rights of the local Georgian community in the Gali district. For example, on 30 March 2021, official Sokhumi rejected the collective letter sent by Georgians living in Gali in August 2020, in which they demanded the restoration of Georgian toponyms and street names. Such an approach by the de facto authorities of Abkhazia will obviously provide more grounds for creating positive attitude among ethnic Georgians towards the Russian Federation's propaganda and soft power, especially given that the “cold” policy of the Abkhaz side towards the Gali population cannot be balanced by the supportive policy of the central Government of Georgia due to the isolation of the district.
 
 
 
 
[1] State statistics committee of the de facto Republic of Abkhazia. National composition of the population according to the 2016 data (in Russian) https://ugsra.org/ofitsialnaya-statistika.php?ELEMENT_ID=243
[2] The ethnic Abkhaz population of Abkhazia may be smaller than the official figure. According to the census conducted back in 1989 in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the ethnic Abkhaz population was 105,000 throughout the Soviet Union. Obviously, most of them lived on the territory of the Soviet Socialist Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia, however, it is difficult to imagine that after the war of 1992-1993, economic crisis and collapse of the social sphere, the demographic situation of this ethnic group has changed with such a rapid growth.
Boldirev V.A. (1990) USSR census results (in Russian). Publishing house Финансы и Статистика. P. 37. http://istmat.info/files/uploads/17594/naselenie_sssr._po_dannym_vsesoyuznoy_perepisi_naseleniya_1989g.pdf
[3] A survey conducted in Abkhazia by American and Russian researchers O'Loughlin, J., Kolossov, V., Toal, G. (2011). Inside Abkhazia: Survey of Attitudes in a De Facto State. Post-Soviet Affairs, 27, pg16.